A New Era in Türkiye-EU Relations: The Impact of Geopolitical Changes

Türkiye's relations with the European Union (EU) are the product of a long and complex historical process.  After a promising start with the opening of accession negotiations, this relationship has faced significant challenges in recent years due to geopolitical developments.      This article will analyse Türkiye's EU membership process, the impact of Erdoğan's re-election, the role of the Ukraine crisis, changes in the United States (US) foreign policy approach, and how all these factors shape the future of Türkyie-EU relations.

 

Türkiye's European Union Accession Process and History:

 Türkiye's relations with the EU started with the Ankara Agreement signed in 1963.  However, it took until 2005 for membership negotiations to officially start.  This process has required Türkiye to take important steps in political reforms, human rights and the rule of law.  The accession negotiations have been slowed down and even stalled from time to time due to political disagreements and domestic developments in Türkiye.

 

Ukraine Crisis and Türkiye's Position:

 The Ukraine crisis is an important geopolitical development that directly affects Türkiye-EU relations.  While Türkiye supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, it also maintains close relations with Russia.  This balancing act plays a complex role in Türkiye's relations with the EU.  Türkiye's NATO membership and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, strengthening its co-operation with the EU, while also taking into account its relations with Russia, require a delicate balance in relations.

 

New Dynamics in Türkiye-EU Relations:

 Türkiye-EU relations have a complex structure based on mutual interests and challenges.  Migrant flows, terrorism and economic relations are important elements of these connections.  The EU's enlargement policies are an important factor affecting Türkiye's membership prospects.      The uncertainty in the EU's enlargement policies and the opposition of some member states to Türkiye's membership increase the uncertainty in relations.

 

The Effects of Donald Trump's Election as President:

 The US presidency of Donald Trump has indirectly affected Türkiye-EU relations.  Trump's ‘America First’ approach and his distrust of international organisations have affected the EU's foreign policy and its relations with Türkiye. The US attitude towards the country plays a decisive role in Türkiye-EU relations.  The uncertainty in the Trump administration's attitude towards Turkey has created a new dynamic in relations.

 

Conclusion and Evaluation:

 The future of Türkiye's relations with the EU depends on many factors.  The political will of both Türkiye and the EU, reform efforts and geopolitical developments will determine the course of these relations.  To strengthen its relations with the EU, Turkey needs to advance its democratisation process, respect human rights and ensure the rule of law.  It is also important for the EU to adopt a fairer and more transparent approach to Türkiye, to show flexibility in membership negotiations and to recognise Türkiye's strategic importance.  In the future, Türkiye's relations with the EU are likely to be shaped by different scenarios, such as strategic partnership or limited co-operation.  Which of these scenarios will materialise will depend on the interaction of the factors mentioned above.